Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4acd…20c7 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 29% +$1
politics 15% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 15 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 0% -9.8%
all 50 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage303d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $118 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $36 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $39 −$4 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Aug 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 27 $3 $0 +8%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 26 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $9 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $29 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $36 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records