Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4ad0…d8e4 sports 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%257W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$8
other 7% −$29
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +28.4% +16.2% 70% 62% +16.1%
≤30d 156 +13.2% +2.4% 68% 61% +4.5%
≤90d 382 +3.9% -6.0% 64% 54% -11.4%
all 399 +4.3% -5.7% 64% 54% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 54% -10.9%
10% -14.7% 45% -19.4%
15% -22.9% 37% -27.2%
20% -30.5% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses257 / 142
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions39
Markets (closed)399 / 438
History coverage98d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 87¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $2 +$4 +188%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $2 +$2 +116%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $2 +$2 +116%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$4 +414%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$4 +176%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +240%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 57m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $0 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $1 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 6h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 6h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $1 7h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $1 7h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 81¢ $1 7h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $1 8h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $0 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.71 · official $71.71 (match) · 1169 history records