Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ad8…969f crypto 1192 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,036 (-164%) realized −$11,036 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%641W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day197.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,669
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 737 -24.8% -31.9% 40% 40% -87.5%
≤30d 1133 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -74.0%
≤90d 1133 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -74.0%
all 1133 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 57% -74.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 57% -76.5%
15% -21.4% 57% -78.7%
20% -29.1% 57% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$40 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$11,036
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses641 / 492
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1133 / 1192
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day197.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 55¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Down 52¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12AM ET Jun 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10AM ET Jun 15 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12AM ET Jun 15 $262 −$262 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET Jun 15 $497 −$497 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.57 · official $32.78 · 3500 history records