Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ad8…bf4c other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-40%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$6
crypto 15% −$6
sports 11% −$5
politics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 50% -29.5%
≤30d 9 -34.4% -40.6% 33% 33% -46.5%
≤90d 9 -34.4% -40.6% 33% 33% -46.5%
all 11 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 36% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 36% -45.7%
10% -42.3% 36% -50.9%
15% -47.9% 27% -55.6%
20% -53.0% 18% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage250d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 09 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 24 $13 −$6 -43%
XRP Up or Down - October 13, 11PM ET Oct 17 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 209d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 234d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 239d
XRP Up or Down - October 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 244d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 246d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 247d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 248d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 249d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records