Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4add…8f36
sports · 1001 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31,692 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12,585 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$598
Realized−$12,585
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses704 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$533
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1091 / 1001
History coverage72d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 6 History 1091 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,948
7 days−$4,365
14 days−$5,711
30 days−$5,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 64¢ 74¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+16%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) San Diego Padres 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Nevada Wolf Pack 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Ashlyn Krueger 36¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Samsung Lions 67¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Lotte Giants Kiwoom Heroes 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Canucks Ducks 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Missouri State Bears vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Missouri State Bears 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Radford Highlanders vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs Radford Highlanders 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-01-10? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Missouri State Bears vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Jun 14 $0 −$2 -4208%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Radford Highlanders vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Flames vs. Penguins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 14 $0 −$32 -6774%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
California Golden Bears vs. Stanford Cardinal Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Clo Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Avalanche Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. East Carolina Pirates (W) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacific Tigers vs. Portland Pilots Jun 14 $3 −$256 -8842%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-07? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 −$5 -7681%
Spread: Warriors (-6.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$14 -221%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-01-04? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Chattanooga Mocs vs. Mercer Bears Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Honor of Kings: UU Gamers vs WST (BO5) - KPL Growth League Group Stage Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Longwood Lancers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Missouri State Bears vs. Liberty Flames Jun 14 $0 −$1,468 -511171%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In G Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-18.5) Jun 14 $0 −$9 -4036%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% −$5,743
other 8% −$1,480
politics 1% −$1,362
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $301 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $30 10h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $40 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $3 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $200 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 93¢ $100 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 87¢ $50 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 83¢ $101 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 78¢ $40 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 41¢ $30 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 52¢ $10 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $475 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $36 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $141 13h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $248 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $60 15h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 15h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 15h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -60.8% -64.6% 28% 14% -23.7%
≤30d 369 -26.2% -33.2% 53% 25% -15.5%
≤90d 1091 -9.1% -17.7% 65% 28% -13.2%
all 1091 -9.1% -17.7% 65% 28% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 28% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 19% -21.5%
15% -32.8% 15% -29.1%
20% -39.4% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.09 · official $598.09 (match) · 3500 history records