Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ae0…525e sports 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$535 (-2%) realized −$543 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%163W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$52
14 days+$116
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$426
other 15% −$163
politics 15% −$33
finance 12% +$15
tech 9% −$80
culture 7% +$35
world 7% +$42
economics 4% +$8
crypto 0% −$8
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.8% -18.4% 82% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 63 -2.5% -11.8% 92% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 183 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 0% -11.9%
all 183 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -11.9%
10% -21.6% 0% -20.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -28.0%
20% -36.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$51 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized−$543
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses163 / 20
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)183 / 187
History coverage60d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 97¢ 98¢ $324 $327 +$3 (+1%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 97¢ 98¢ $211 $214 +$3 (+1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? No 98¢ 100¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 97¢ 98¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $198 +$7 +4%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $396 +$4 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $621 +$11 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $153 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $273 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $174 +$5 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $120 +$5 +4%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $112 +$4 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $127 +$4 +3%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $175 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $183 +$2 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $109 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1,272 +$10 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $216 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $253 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $497 +$7 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $106 +$1 +1%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 11 $214 +$5 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $339 +$3 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$1 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $334 +$4 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $72 +$2 +3%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $119 +$3 +2%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $89 +$2 +2%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $260 +$9 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $189 +$5 +3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $126 +$4 +3%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $182 +$6 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $90 +$2 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $97 +$1 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $112 +$4 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $180 −$30 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $101 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $38 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $105 +$1 +1%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $392 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $37 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $67 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 98¢ $115 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL No 100¢ $168 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 97¢ $163 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 97¢ $134 10h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $144 11h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 96¢ $29 11h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 96¢ $7 11h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 96¢ $126 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 96¢ $27 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 32h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 32h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 32h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 32h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 33h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $42 35h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $396 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $5 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $152 37h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election SELL No 100¢ $632 2d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 99¢ $191 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 99¢ $191 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 100¢ $158 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 3d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL No 100¢ $80 3d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL No 100¢ $75 3d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.17 · official $711.17 (match) · 638 history records