Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ae5…6079 sports 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,326 (-1%) realized −$1,326 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%140W / 333L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$1,706est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$939
other 43% −$958
world 4% −$95
politics 2% −$109
finance 1% −$68
economics 0% −$7
weather 0% −$77
tech 0% −$13
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 194 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 473 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 1% -10.9%
all 473 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 1% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 1% -19.5%
15% -27.8% 1% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses140 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$1,706
Open positions0
Markets (closed)473 / 473
History coverage53d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 473 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $178 −$6 -3%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 -8%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $190 −$3 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -13%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 05 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 05 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $210 −$13 -6%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $134 −$23 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $123 −$4 -3%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $288 −$23 -8%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $27 −$6 -21%
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 04 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $92 −$3 -3%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 04 $158 −$3 -2%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 04 $29 −$2 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 04 $192 −$4 -2%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 04 $8 $0 -5%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 03 $17 $0 -2%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 03 $15 $0 -2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $261 −$16 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $138 −$2 -1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $348 −$15 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $247 −$9 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 -9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $660 −$27 -4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 01 $570 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $590 −$47 -8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 01 $570 $0 +0%
Monaco vs. Nanterre Jun 01 $6 $0 +2%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 01 $78 +$1 +1%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 31 $232 $0 +0%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $516 −$22 -4%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $275 +$15 +6%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 31 $315 +$10 +3%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $630 −$7 -1%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $132 −$1 -1%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia May 30 $17 $0 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $287 +$1 +0%
Paris Basketball vs. Strasbourg May 30 $2 $0 +1%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 30 $7 −$1 -9%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $380 −$37 -10%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 30 $215 +$5 +2%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $470 −$97 -21%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $480 +$520 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 86¢ $172 15m
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 89¢ $178 18m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 97¢ $48 34m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $48 34m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $166 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $167 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 92¢ $18 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 92¢ $18 2h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL No $2 3h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 3h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 3h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 3h
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral SELL Yes 46¢ $9 14d
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? SELL No 47¢ $9 14d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 62¢ $42 14d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $111 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 61¢ $120 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $123 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 51¢ $22 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 49¢ $33 14d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 65¢ $37 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 49¢ $32 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 49¢ $32 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? BUY No 52¢ $42 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? BUY No 53¢ $51 14d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? BUY No 54¢ $36 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2392 history records