Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4ae7…150c other 60 markets active 2d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,411 (+13%) realized +$2,384 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%33W / 25L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$25
14 days+$1,141
30 days+$1,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$1,140
crypto 12% +$893
tech 2% +$81
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 33% -5.7%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.0% 58% 42% +14.1%
≤90d 57 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 39% +0.8%
all 58 +4.9% -5.0% 57% 38% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 38% +0.8%
10% -14.1% 22% -8.8%
15% -22.4% 14% -17.6%
20% -30.0% 9% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$34 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$2,384
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses33 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage90d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Over $8M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 88¢ 97¢ $281 $311 +$31 (+11%)
Concrete FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 67¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $6M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 14 $95 −$16 -17%
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 13 $284 +$18 +6%
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 10 $207 +$23 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 07 $295 +$81 +27%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 05 $893 +$148 +16%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $36 −$7 -20%
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 04 $16 +$2 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,236 +$893 +40%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 27 $15 −$9 -57%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $42 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $54 −$14 -25%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 15 $123 +$13 +11%
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 12 $9 +$10 +112%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $777 −$76 -10%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 05 $902 −$21 -2%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $154 −$55 -35%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $927 +$31 +3%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 04 $917 +$42 +5%
MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch? May 02 $12 −$12 -100%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? May 01 $278 −$126 -45%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $2,054 +$190 +9%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? May 01 $219 +$25 +11%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $170 +$28 +16%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $201 +$422 +210%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $226 −$21 -9%
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Apr 27 $231 −$6 -3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 26 $400 −$5 -1%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 26 $395 −$5 -1%
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 26 $316 +$3 +1%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 24 $448 +$7 +2%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 24 $512 −$120 -23%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 24 $99 +$64 +65%
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 24 $85 +$12 +14%
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 24 $7 +$1 +14%
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 24 $8 −$1 -15%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 23 $297 +$6 +2%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 23 $158 +$98 +62%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 23 $100 +$33 +33%
USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch? Apr 22 $127 +$80 +64%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 22 $250 +$58 +23%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $100 +$24 +24%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 21 $235 +$31 +13%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 20 $13 −$6 -42%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 19 $565 −$47 -8%
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 14 $97 +$30 +31%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 11 $268 −$9 -4%
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 01 $100 −$23 -23%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $538 +$239 +44%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $102 −$36 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Over $6M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 99¢ $5 46h
Over $8M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 97¢ $11 46h
Over $8M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 97¢ $19 46h
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 92¢ $164 2d
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 92¢ $18 2d
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 93¢ $39 6d
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 94¢ $29 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $191 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 49¢ $144 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 43¢ $41 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $295 11d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch SELL No 98¢ $295 11d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 85¢ $28 12d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 16¢ $29 12d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 20¢ $36 12d
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 83¢ $8 12d
Over $6M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 91¢ $23 12d
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 84¢ $38 12d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 80¢ $82 12d
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 80¢ $120 12d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 57¢ $40 12d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 57¢ $6 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $39 12d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 65¢ $53 13d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 64¢ $49 13d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 60¢ $211 13d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 51¢ $1 13d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 51¢ $2 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.32 · official $318.32 (match) · 551 history records