Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ae7…087f crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,473 (+12%) realized +$1,494 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%79W / 127L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$937
7 days+$935
14 days+$769
30 days+$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$234
other 24% +$983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -16.8% -24.7% 39% 38% -0.0%
≤30d 206 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 37% -2.3%
≤90d 206 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 37% -2.3%
all 206 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 37% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 37% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 34% -11.7%
15% -38.5% 32% -20.2%
20% -44.5% 29% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$28 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$1,494
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses79 / 127
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage13d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 27¢ 25¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$20 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$31 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$47 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$84 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$30 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$44 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$58 -94%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$38 -69%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $18 −$7 -37%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 +$92 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$43 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$28 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$49 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$16 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$38 -88%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$109 +107%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $396 +$888 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$42 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$20 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $84 −$39 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$27 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$35 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -67%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$25 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$30 +143%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$5 -36%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $81 +$157 +195%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$17 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 27¢ $82 3m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $61 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 21¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $39 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.20 · official $60.87 · 535 history records