Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4ae7…68d2 other 16 markets active 11h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$214 (+1%) realized +$702 · open −$488
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,236per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$8,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$203
14 days+$213
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$575
sports 3% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.8% +29.2% 100% 100% +24.7%
≤30d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 38% 38% -7.4%
≤90d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 38% 38% -7.4%
all 8 +11.1% +0.5% 38% 38% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 38% -7.4%
10% -9.1% 25% -16.3%
15% -17.9% 12% -24.4%
20% -26.0% 12% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$29 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$8,270
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$488
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,236
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,818 $2,397 +$579 (+32%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,256 $1,462 −$794 (-35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,184 $1,281 +$96 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,224 $1,128 −$96 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,100 $1,125 +$25 (+2%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $450 −$50 (-10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $464 $261 −$203 (-44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $212 $167 −$46 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $206 +$133 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $330 +$70 +21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $978 −$49 -5%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $252 +$60 +24%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $545 −$16 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,333 −$23 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $308 −$26 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,130 −$31 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $419 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,132 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $340 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 11h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $258 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $206 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $330 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $300 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $401 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $300 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $571 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $432 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $433 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $35 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $330 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $371 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $497 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $471 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $489 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $89 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $330 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $194 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $203 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,270.42 · official $8,270.42 (match) · 128 history records