Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aec…155e other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$313 (-15%) realized −$311 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$251
14 days−$192
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$78
sports 12% +$45
economics 11% −$238
tech 11% +$14
crypto 9% −$59
finance 5% +$15
politics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +12.5% +1.8% 36% 33% -28.0%
≤30d 43 +15.6% +4.5% 40% 37% -21.0%
≤90d 43 +15.6% +4.5% 40% 37% -21.0%
all 47 +11.6% +1.0% 40% 36% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 36% -24.5%
10% -8.7% 34% -31.8%
15% -17.5% 34% -38.4%
20% -25.6% 32% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage221d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $61 +$48 +79%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$22 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$69 -90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$37 +93%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $27 −$9 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$28 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $84 −$37 -44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $114 −$90 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$16 +54%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $65 +$33 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $189 −$113 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$18 +86%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 +$46 +262%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$28 -69%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 +$9 +69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$64 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$26 -64%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da May 27 $20 +$9 +43%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Dec 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Nov 15 $100 −$47 -47%
Will Circle Internet Group (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 12 $100 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $104 3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $79 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 22h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $109 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 32h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.52 · official $263.53 (match) · 309 history records