Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aec…4ce9 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,761 (+3%) realized +$3,761 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%30W / 12L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,231per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$991est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,874
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 93% 43% +4.4%
≤30d 42 -5.3% -14.3% 71% 43% -11.0%
≤90d 42 -5.3% -14.3% 71% 43% -11.0%
all 42 -5.3% -14.3% 71% 43% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 43% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 31% -19.6%
15% -30.0% 21% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$3,875) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$860 vs −$2,306 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,761
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses30 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$991
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3,231
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6,003 +$1,007 +17%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,207 +$28 +2%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,893 +$526 +14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,003 +$103 +10%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4,043 −$1,000 -25%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,651 +$645 +39%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3,226 +$2,098 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $126 +$11 +9%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,388 +$125 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,258 +$166 +7%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,006 +$202 +10%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,011 +$418 +21%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,867 +$339 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,001 +$31 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4,113 +$1,207 +29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,007 +$200 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $7,157 −$7,089 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,763 +$6,506 +137%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,875 +$3,799 +98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6,379 −$2,000 -31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5,195 +$2,184 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $6,892 −$2,000 -29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,044 −$4,000 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,478 +$1,092 +44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,018 +$812 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,012 +$483 +24%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $9,417 −$2,000 -21%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,011 +$459 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,016 +$724 +36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,014 +$607 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3,015 −$827 -27%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $4,005 +$158 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $5,027 −$1,000 -20%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3,028 −$388 -13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,021 +$1,053 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3,619 −$3,589 -99%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $2,003 +$101 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,989 −$1,774 -89%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1,004 +$166 +16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $4,913 +$477 +10%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $992 +$67 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $7,010 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 88¢ $1,004 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 89¢ $1,003 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 85¢ $1,005 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 85¢ $1,005 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 80¢ $982 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 85¢ $1,005 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $1,235 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $206 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 97¢ $1,001 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $4,419 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 78¢ $885 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $1,003 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 92¢ $1,002 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $1,003 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $1,106 14h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 90¢ $1,003 15h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $3,921 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 91¢ $1,003 19h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 26¢ $1,022 19h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $1,008 19h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 70¢ $1,009 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $2,296 31h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $38 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $1,008 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 73¢ $101 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records