Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aec…a376 crypto 542 markets active 7h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,325 (-5%) realized −$2,323 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate60%315W / 212L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$128
14 days+$33
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$643
sports 28% −$171
other 17% −$271
politics 6% −$1,402
finance 3% $0
world 2% +$5
economics 1% −$50
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +6.0% -4.1% 55% 28% -4.0%
≤30d 147 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 16% -16.6%
≤90d 181 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 15% -19.2%
all 527 -3.6% -12.7% 60% 9% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 9% -14.2%
10% -21.1% 6% -22.4%
15% -28.7% 4% -29.9%
20% -35.7% 3% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$2,323
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses315 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions14
Markets (closed)527 / 542
History coverage588d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $18 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $9 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $55 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $85 +$5 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$19 +304%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$21 -41%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $32 +$2 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $35 +$11 +31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5 +$6 +123%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -71%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $80 +$31 +39%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $89 +$50 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$37 +83%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 +$17 +63%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $34 +$10 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$23 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -50%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $285 −$32 -11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 40¢ $4 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $55 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 75¢ $2 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 75¢ $1 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 75¢ $1 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 75¢ $1 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 75¢ $1 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $30 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 43h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 78¢ $9 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 80¢ $12 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 75¢ $1 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $36 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 44h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 73¢ $7 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 70¢ $7 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 70¢ $14 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 23¢ $5 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 22¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 91¢ $18 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 45¢ $4 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 87¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.30 · official $128.30 (match) · 1653 history records