Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4af3…c51e other 17 markets active 10d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-13%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
sports 32% −$1
world 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 41% -23.1%
≤90d 17 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 41% -23.1%
all 17 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 41% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 41% -23.1%
10% -32.6% 41% -30.5%
15% -39.2% 35% -37.2%
20% -45.1% 24% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +325%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 11d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 13d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records