Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4af6…270a
crypto · 150 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$565 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$565 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses77 / 73
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage167d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 0 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$813
7 days+$813
14 days+$813
30 days+$813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 1 Winner DetonatioN FocusMe 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner Dynasty 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP Regular Season DetonatioN FocusMe 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner CTBC Flying Oyster 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner DetonatioN FocusMe 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Nuggets 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will SZA release a new song in 2025? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $202 +$131 +64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $200 +$800 +400%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $402 +$96 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 12 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 12 $5 +$9 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$9 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7? Mar 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 05 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 05 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 05 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 05 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Mar 02 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner Feb 06 $8 +$3 +46%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jan 31 $38 −$18 -47%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Jan 31 $8 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Jan 31 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Jan 31 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Jan 31 $5 $0 -7%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Jan 31 $10 −$2 -15%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 30 $40 +$26 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% +$781
crypto 18% −$67
other 7% −$130
world 5% −$56
politics 3% +$47
weather 1% −$5
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $333 18m
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 57m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $40 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $159 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $498 44h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 44h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 88d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $9 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $14 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $7 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +58.3% +43.2% 60% 60% +62.7%
≤30d 5 +58.3% +43.2% 60% 60% +62.7%
≤90d 8 +8.6% -1.8% 38% 38% +54.7%
all 150 -13.8% -22.0% 51% 32% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 32% +15.1%
10% -29.5% 25% +4.1%
15% -36.3% 21% -5.9%
20% -42.6% 17% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records