Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4A 0x4af7…9842 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$467 (+9%) realized +$344 · open +$123

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown79%max

Avg bet$166per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+24.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+37.8%	+24.7%	58%	58%	+4.6%
≤30d	12	+37.8%	+24.7%	58%	58%	+4.6%
≤90d	12	+37.8%	+24.7%	58%	58%	+4.6%
all	12	+37.8%	+24.7%	58%	58%	+4.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.7%	58%	+4.6%
10%	+12.8%	42%	-5.4%
15%	+1.9%	42%	-14.5%
20%	-8.1%	33%	-22.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +104% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$93 vs −$65 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$3,178

Realized+$344

Unrealized+$123

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Open positions19

Markets (closed)12 / 31

History coverage6d

Avg bet$166

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown79%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 19 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	94¢	$550	$568	+$18 (+3%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	83¢	86¢	$410	$427	+$17 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$350	$352	+$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	85¢	100¢	$300	$351	+$51 (+17%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	No	87¢	86¢	$300	$298	−$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$200	$205	+$5 (+2%)
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	83¢	100¢	$100	$120	+$20 (+20%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	91¢	94¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	90¢	91¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	No	70¢	70¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	89¢	87¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	79¢	76¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	Yes	40¢	50¢	$70	$87	+$17 (+24%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	79¢	78¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?	No	89¢	87¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	33¢	32¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$502	+$73	+14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$222	+$141	+64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 21	$201	−$201	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$602	+$72	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$49	+48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$26	+$167	+650%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	−$24	-48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$202	+$120	+60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo	BUY Yes	79¢	$50	1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	2h
Will Croatia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026	BUY No	89¢	$50	2h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	83¢	$412	24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	66¢	$202	24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	37¢	$51	25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$302	25h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	85¢	$201	36h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	87¢	$301	36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	36h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$501	36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	87¢	$502	36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$502	36h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY No	70¢	$101	40h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	33¢	$26	40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$50	43h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$50	43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	35¢	$26	2d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	40¢	$71	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	33¢	$20	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	13¢	$26	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	27¢	$1	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,178.44 · official $3,178.44 (match) · 53 history records