Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4af9…3144 weather 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$91
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -19.4%
≤30d 55 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -17.5%
≤90d 55 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -17.5%
all 55 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -17.5%
10% -24.3% 0% -25.4%
15% -31.6% 0% -32.6%
20% -38.3% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $106 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $70 −$26 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $35 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 23 $14 −$6 -40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $29 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 22 $26 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$14 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $36 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $58 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $27 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 58¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 34¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 36¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 33¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 41¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 42¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 46¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 54¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 55¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? SELL No 45¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? SELL No 44¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 44¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 44¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 61¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL No 24¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY No 26¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL No 41¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 42¢ $21 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 60¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records