Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4afa…6edf
crypto · 576 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$224 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$224 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses415 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)576 / 576
History coverage93d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 576 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 21 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 21 $5 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 20 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 20 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 20 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 20 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 20 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 20 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 20 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 20 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 20 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $7 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $0 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.9% -32.9% 50% 50% -28.1%
≤30d 147 -16.6% -24.5% 65% 44% -19.9%
≤90d 561 -8.5% -17.2% 71% 43% -15.7%
all 576 -7.8% -16.6% 72% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 44% -15.1%
10% -24.5% 23% -23.2%
15% -31.8% 11% -30.6%
20% -38.5% 7% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1305 history records