Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4afc…e11e crypto 1308 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$564 (-3%) realized −$564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate82%1072W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$602
14 days−$271
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$519
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -37.9% -43.8% 48% 28% -44.0%
≤30d 945 -4.9% -14.0% 79% 33% -13.2%
≤90d 1308 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 33% -11.8%
all 1308 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 33% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 33% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 11% -20.2%
15% -28.2% 7% -27.9%
20% -35.3% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1072 / 236
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1308 / 1308
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1308 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$9 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $17 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records