Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4afc…ded7 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-3%) realized −$143 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$44
14 days−$318
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$41
sports 7% −$125
crypto 2% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 43% -13.4%
≤30d 40 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -14.1%
≤90d 40 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -14.1%
all 40 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 48% -14.1%
10% -25.1% 45% -22.3%
15% -32.3% 42% -29.8%
20% -39.0% 35% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$110 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage21d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 27 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $98 +$91 +93%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $98 +$81 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $98 +$69 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $98 +$49 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$69 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $98 −$92 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $883 −$874 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $686 +$251 +37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$116 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$103 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 +$66 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 +$69 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $196 +$183 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 +$56 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$95 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $98 −$97 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $98 +$84 +86%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $98 −$97 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $615 +$97 +16%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $192 +$238 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $99 −$98 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 08 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $98 +$49 +50%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $49 +$46 +93%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $98 −$50 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $98 1h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $98 11h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 77¢ $179 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $98 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $98 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $98 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $98 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 43¢ $86 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $104 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $98 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $883 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $98 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $937 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $686 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $98 8d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $98 9d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $98 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $98 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $98 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.07 · official $100.07 (match) · 72 history records