Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4afe…26e3 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate71%36W / 15L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$11
politics 11% +$15
crypto 8% +$9
sports 0% −$6
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 51 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 10% -9.3%
10% -14.4% 10% -18.0%
15% -22.6% 10% -25.9%
20% -30.2% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses36 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage608d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 27 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 22 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? May 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 29 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 11? Apr 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 9? Apr 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 2? Apr 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 25? Mar 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Mar 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? Feb 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? Jan 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Magic Nov 13 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $13 $0 +1%
Hailey Welch jail in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $1 $0 -1%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $277 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $4,430 $0 -0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 26 $3,323 $0 -0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 26 $831 $0 +0%
Saints vs. Panthers Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 11 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $503 +$5 +1%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Oct 28 $11 +$5 +52%
Will Leicester win on 2024-10-25? Oct 28 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 28 $11 +$5 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $34 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $34 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $34 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $34 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $34 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $34 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $34 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $34 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? BUY No 97¢ $33 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $33 58d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 63d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 68d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 70d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 76d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 83d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $33 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $37 111d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $16 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $33 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 99¢ $33 133d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 138d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 195d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 192 history records