Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b03…bd66 crypto 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,171 (-38%) realized −$5,130 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%500W / 646L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day152.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,461
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 592 -72.9% -75.5% 20% 16% -87.2%
≤30d 1146 -40.2% -45.9% 44% 36% -51.3%
≤90d 1146 -40.2% -45.9% 44% 36% -51.3%
all 1146 -40.2% -45.9% 44% 36% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.9% 36% -51.3%
10% ← realistic here -51.1% 7% -55.9%
15% -55.8% 4% -60.2%
20% -60.1% 2% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$5,130
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses500 / 646
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1146 / 732
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day152.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 56¢ 57¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 12AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 2PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 22? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 21? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 12PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.37 · official $135.12 · 3500 history records