Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b05…362e crypto 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate75%145W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$16
other 1% −$7
sports 1% +$13
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 9% -6.0%
≤30d 43 -12.3% -20.6% 79% 9% -8.0%
≤90d 194 -7.2% -16.0% 75% 16% -10.0%
all 194 -7.2% -16.0% 75% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 16% -10.0%
10% -24.1% 6% -18.6%
15% -31.4% 6% -26.5%
20% -38.1% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses145 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage67d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $43 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $43 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $39 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $37 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 30 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 30 $10 −$5 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 12 $9 +$12 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $45 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $37 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $27 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $22 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records