Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b07…2d94 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+3%) realized +$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -65.2% -68.5% 0% 0% -68.5%
≤30d 1 -65.2% -68.5% 0% 0% -68.5%
≤90d 1 -65.2% -68.5% 0% 0% -68.5%
all 1 -65.2% -68.5% 0% 0% -68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.5% 0% -68.5%
10% ← realistic here -71.5% 0% -71.5%
15% -74.3% 0% -74.3%
20% -76.8% 0% -76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ 64¢ $7 $10 +$4 (+58%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ 23¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 28¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+157%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 57¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 26¢ 2¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $6 −$4 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $1 29m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 33¢ $1 31m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 6¢ $1 44m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 6¢ $1 44m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 11¢ $1 45m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $1 46m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $1 46m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $1 46m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $1 49m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $1 49m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $1 49m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $1 49m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 32¢ $1 49m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 21¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 21¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 75¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 29¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 28¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 24¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.17 · official $29.17 (match) · 32 history records