Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4B 0x4b07…5f54 sports 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$97 (+6%) realized +$118 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%68W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$28
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$46
other 9% +$78
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +14.1% +3.3% 59% 58% -7.6%
≤30d 117 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 57% -6.5%
≤90d 117 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 57% -6.5%
all 117 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 57% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 57% -6.5%
10% -6.6% 55% -15.5%
15% -15.7% 54% -23.6%
20% -23.9% 52% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses68 / 49
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 52¢ 100¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+92%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 44¢ 49¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Under 47¢ 37¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 52¢ 5¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$39 +188%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $28 +$27 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $28 +$25 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $23 +$24 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 +$16 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$41 +165%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $37 +$29 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$19 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 +$46 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $21 +$20 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $21 +$23 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $26 +$27 +105%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +165%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $28 24m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $20 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $28 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $28 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $25 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $28 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 52¢ $20 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $32 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $28 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $23 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $25 7h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $37 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $23 21h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $23 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 23h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 25h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $21 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.86 · official $121.45 · 238 history records