Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b0a…b4a2 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-22%) realized −$381 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$182
14 days−$332
30 days−$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$99
other 18% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.3% -20.6% 30% 30% -24.4%
≤30d 26 -22.4% -29.8% 27% 27% -33.4%
≤90d 26 -22.4% -29.8% 27% 27% -33.4%
all 26 -22.4% -29.8% 27% 27% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 27% -33.4%
10% -36.5% 27% -39.8%
15% -42.6% 27% -45.6%
20% -48.3% 27% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$47 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 81¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+59%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 85¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+55%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$56 +109%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$84 +165%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$63 +307%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$37 +73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$94 +307%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $51 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $51 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $20 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $31 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $102 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $102 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 13¢ $51 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.49 · official $227.11 · 38 history records