Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b0a…d5e2 politics 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$286 (+5%) realized +$274 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$95
other 23% +$2
culture 11% −$22
sports 11% +$56
finance 7% +$132
economics 3% +$10
world 2% +$7
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 2 +66.6% +50.7% 50% 50% +7.8%
≤90d 6 +22.8% +11.1% 67% 50% +13.6%
all 34 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 12% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 12% -4.6%
10% -14.5% 9% -13.7%
15% -22.8% 6% -22.0%
20% -30.3% 6% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×9.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.57 per $1 lost it wins $10.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage240d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $253 $258 +$5 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $181 $181 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 86¢ $104 $111 +$7 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $245 −$2 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $43 +$57 +134%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 11 $190 +$10 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 11 $418 +$132 +32%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Apr 10 $141 +$94 +67%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Mar 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 17 $195 +$2 +1%
Will NSC be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Jan 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the top global Netflix movie this week? ( Jan 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (D Jan 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Dec Jan 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $223 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (Decemb Dec 22 $3 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $485 $0 -0%
2025 September hottest on record? Dec 05 $2 $0 +0%
2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record? Dec 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 02 $255 −$1 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 01 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 31 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $77 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $182 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $243 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $104 11d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $201 19d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 81¢ $245 25d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 42¢ $43 36d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 79¢ $255 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY No 76¢ $418 70d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $152 90d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $37 90d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 60¢ $120 90d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 60¢ $0 90d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 60¢ $21 90d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 90d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY No 21¢ $21 153d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 153d
Will NSC be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? SELL No 100¢ $40 160d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $195 179d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $223 179d
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this BUY No 100¢ $20 179d
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (D BUY No 100¢ $9 179d
Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the top global Netflix movie this week? ( BUY No 100¢ $5 179d
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Dec BUY No 100¢ $40 179d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 179d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $212 179d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 99¢ $4 194d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $212 194d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.29 · official $840.29 (match) · 236 history records