Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b0c…7a20 other 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-4%) realized +$7 · open −$140
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%155W / 8L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$40
14 days+$38
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$104
world 12% +$2
sports 3% +$1
politics 3% −$1
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 1% -8.4%
≤30d 163 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 163 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 1% -8.6%
all 163 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 1% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 1% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses155 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)163 / 192
History coverage27d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Francisco Conceição: 2+ assists No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ assists No 97¢ 94¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Samu Costa: 2+ assists No 97¢ 92¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Ante Budimir: 2+ assists No 95¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
César Yanis: 2+ goals No 98¢ 95¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ assists No 97¢ 88¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Andrés Gómez: 5+ shots No 94¢ 50¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Richard Ríos: 5+ shots No 91¢ 50¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ assists No 95¢ 50¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Ezri Konsa: 2+ assists No 98¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Igor Sergeyev: 5+ shots No 94¢ 55¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 5+ shots No 92¢ 52¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Ante Budimir: 5+ shots No 91¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Tomás Rodríguez: 2+ assists No 97¢ 52¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Mateo Kovačić: 2+ assists No 94¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Jaminton Campaz: 5+ shots No 95¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Luka Modrić: 2+ assists No 95¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Jorge Carrascal: 5+ shots No 95¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Jhon Arias: 5+ shots No 94¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Juan Fernando Quintero: 5+ shots No 95¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Juan Camilo Portilla: 2+ goals No 98¢ 66¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists No 91¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Augustine Boakye: 5+ shots No 92¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Ivan Perišić: 5+ shots No 93¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Alessandro Schöpf: 5+ shots Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Nicolas Seiwald: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Paul Wanner: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ assists Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Alexander Prass: 5+ shots Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ali Olwan: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Nicolás González: 2+ assists Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Adil Boulbina: 5+ shots Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
José Manuel López: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Nadhir Benbouali: 5+ shots Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Valentín Barco: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Sander Berge: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Marcus Thuram: 5+ shots Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 16 $15 −$4 -29%
Chris Wood: 2+ assists Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Callum McCowatt: 4+ shots Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Eli Just: 5+ shots Jun 16 $25 +$1 +2%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ assists Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Dennis Eckert: 2+ assists Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Kosta Barbarouses: 5+ shots Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Ben Waine: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Kosta Barbarouses: 3+ goals Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Chris Wood: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Jesse Randall: 2+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Lachlan Bayliss: 2+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ben Old: 2+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ala Al Hajji: 2+ assists Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Richard Ríos: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Richard Ríos: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Jorge Carrascal: 5+ shots BUY No 95¢ $15 1h
Jaminton Campaz: 5+ shots BUY No 95¢ $15 1h
Juan Fernando Quintero: 5+ shots BUY No 95¢ $15 1h
Jhon Arias: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $15 1h
Igor Sergeyev: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $15 1h
Andrés Gómez: 5+ shots BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Andrés Gómez: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $15 1h
Juan Camilo Portilla: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 5+ shots BUY No 92¢ $15 3h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $15 3h
Augustine Boakye: 5+ shots BUY No 92¢ $10 3h
José Fajardo: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $10 3h
Cecilio Waterman: 5+ shots BUY No 94¢ $10 3h
Tomás Rodríguez: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $15 3h
Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $20 3h
César Yanis: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $15 3h
Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
Ivan Perišić: 5+ shots BUY No 93¢ $10 4h
Ante Budimir: 5+ shots BUY No 91¢ $15 4h
Mateo Kovačić: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $15 4h
Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $10 4h
Luka Modrić: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $15 4h
Ezri Konsa: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Ante Budimir: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $15 5h
Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $15 5h
Samu Costa: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $10 5h
Samu Costa: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.75 · official $319.91 (match) · 403 history records