Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4B 0x4b0f…57fe crypto 1929 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-3%) realized −$306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%753W / 960L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$8
14 days+$49
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$441
weather 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 221 +1.5% -8.1% 35% 35% -11.0%
≤30d 703 +12.8% +2.0% 40% 39% +1.1%
≤90d 1594 +14.5% +3.6% 42% 42% -7.4%
all 1713 +13.0% +2.2% 44% 44% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 44% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 43% -16.6%
15% -16.5% 35% -24.7%
20% -24.7% 30% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses753 / 960
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1713 / 1929
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1713 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records