Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4B 0x4b15…10c7 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$111 (-21%) realized −$108 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$130per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 601d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-52.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-48.0%	-52.9%	50%	0%	-41.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.9%	0%	-41.1%
10%	-57.4%	0%	-46.7%
15%	-61.5%	0%	-51.8%
20%	-65.3%	0%	-56.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$119 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.07 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage

Net worth$197

Realized−$108

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage601d

Avg bet$130

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	72¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Nov 02	$200	+$8	+4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 05	$119	−$119	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$101	3h
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	96¢	$200	248d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	42¢	$119	601d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.31 · official $197.32 (match) · 5 history records