Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b15…23b7 crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$579 (-8%) realized −$576 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate74%63W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$19
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% −$98
economics 29% −$413
world 17% +$47
weather 16% −$135
politics 5% +$34
tech 2% +$13
other 1% −$1
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.9% +4.9% 100% 50% -1.0%
≤30d 8 +4.2% -5.8% 75% 12% -7.2%
≤90d 24 -28.8% -35.6% 54% 12% -29.3%
all 85 -9.0% -17.7% 74% 8% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 8% -17.8%
10% -25.6% 4% -25.6%
15% -32.8% 1% -32.8%
20% -39.3% 1% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$40 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized−$576
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses63 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage295d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $416 $412 −$5 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 91¢ 96¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Jun 26 $29 +$8 +28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $214 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 05 $48 −$7 -15%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $350 +$22 +6%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $25 +$2 +8%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $15 +$14 +94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $336 +$34 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 13 $594 +$46 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $304 +$33 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23? Apr 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 24? Apr 12 $181 −$169 -94%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $484 −$484 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 24? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Apr 12 $141 −$103 -73%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20? Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12? Mar 19 $21 −$11 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 27? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 16 $118 +$22 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 24? Feb 24 $120 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 24? Feb 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24? Feb 24 $31 +$8 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 23? Feb 24 $70 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 24? Feb 24 $82 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 23? Feb 23 $75 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 23? Feb 23 $69 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 22? Feb 22 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on February 22? Feb 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Feb 22 $71 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 22? Feb 22 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 21? Feb 21 $126 +$6 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Feb 21 $124 +$11 +9%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 25 $5 −$2 -41%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 25 $20 −$8 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Jan 25 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 25? Jan 25 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $27 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $104 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $104 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $20 22h
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $2 23h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $101 42h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $30 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $51 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $19 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 11d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $18 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $2 13d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 91¢ $20 13d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 91¢ $20 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 96¢ $20 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $20 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 71¢ $41 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $20 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 60¢ $20 24d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 58¢ $20 35d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $29 35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 82¢ $48 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $50 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $100 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $200 43d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $372 49d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $27 49d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $25 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.68 · official $453.68 (match) · 244 history records