Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b16…311b world 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+3%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$10
other 29% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 75% 0% -6.0%
≤90d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 75% 0% -6.0%
all 4 +1.1% -8.5% 75% 0% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -6.0%
10% -17.2% 0% -15.0%
15% -25.2% 0% -23.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×25.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×75.15 per $1 lost it wins $75.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage14d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $319 $319 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $317 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $424 +$36 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $419 +$9 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $319 2m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $318 25m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $317 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $424 13d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $428 13d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $419 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.67 · official $318.67 (match) · 10 history records