Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b17…fb38 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 30% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage467d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $43 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $196 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Sinners' gross more than $37m on opening weekend? Apr 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 08 $2 $0 -10%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 08 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records