Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b17…9a3b crypto 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$394 (-9%) realized −$394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate67%235W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$236
14 days−$252
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$514
other 8% −$14
tech 2% +$3
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -14.7% -22.8% 70% 4% -17.5%
≤30d 315 -15.8% -23.8% 69% 6% -21.0%
≤90d 335 -16.6% -24.6% 68% 7% -21.6%
all 353 -17.7% -25.5% 67% 7% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 7% -20.7%
10% -32.7% 6% -28.3%
15% -39.2% 4% -35.2%
20% -45.1% 4% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses235 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)353 / 353
History coverage322d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 353 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $143 −$130 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$70 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$29 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1796 history records