Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b19…3ee1 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-1%) realized −$73 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate84%87W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$42
other 17% +$14
politics 13% +$10
world 7% −$10
crypto 3% −$28
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -10.2% -18.7% 84% 6% -10.9%
≤30d 103 -10.2% -18.7% 84% 6% -10.9%
≤90d 103 -10.2% -18.7% 84% 6% -10.9%
all 103 -10.2% -18.7% 84% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 6% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 4% -19.5%
15% -33.6% 3% -27.2%
20% -40.1% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses87 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 76¢ 57¢ $96 $72 −$24 (-25%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Guara Esports (-9.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+9.5) METANOIA WOLVES 100¢ $0 $39 +$38 (+9895%)
Will the announcers say "Whistle" 5+ times during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-6.5) vs Fluxo (+6.5) UNO MILLE 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 1+ goals + assists Jun 28 $0 $0 +49%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA W Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Uruguay vs Spain F Jun 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $0 $0 +2%
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $0 $0 +2%
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc Jun 27 $459 +$5 +1%
Will "Tesla" be in the headlines this week? Jun 27 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor Jun 27 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $29 $0 +2%
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $29 $0 +2%
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Daxon Rudolph be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: train launcher (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Norway vs France FIFA Worl Jun 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists Jun 26 $57 +$1 +1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $230? Jun 26 $56 +$2 +3%
T20 Blast, Women: Warwickshire vs Surrey - Completed match? Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $82 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 26 $218 −$96 -44%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $65 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $80 +$11 +14%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $72 +$2 +2%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Tian Jialin vs Dusica Popovski Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: INnoVation vs Dear - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $19 $0 +1%
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers: O/U 54.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Japan vs Jun 26 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 26 $56 +$1 +2%
Daichi Kamada: 2+ shots Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Jun 26 $14 $0 +3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Swamp the Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 26 $36 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-6.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+6.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Guara Esports (-9.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+9.5) BUY METANOIA WOLVES $0 26m
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-6.5) vs Fluxo (+6.5) BUY UNO MILLE 99¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Whistle" 5+ times during the South Africa vs BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 67¢ $0 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $96 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA W BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc SELL No 100¢ $464 39h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Uruguay vs Spain F BUY Yes 99¢ $15 40h
Will "Tesla" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 43h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY Yes 99¢ $5 43h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 43h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY No 99¢ $5 43h
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 99¢ $1 45h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor BUY Yes 95¢ $1 45h
Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $29 45h
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $29 45h
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 45h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $12 45h
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $14 45h
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $29 45h
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $29 45h
Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $37 46h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $0 46h
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $46 46h
Will Daxon Rudolph be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 99¢ $56 46h
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 46h
Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $96 46h
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 46h
Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $52 46h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $42 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.76 · official $135.07 (match) · 253 history records