Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4b1c…8273 sports 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$872 (+2%) realized +$307 · open +$565
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%144W / 106L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$475est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days+$573
14 days+$73
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$883
other 1% +$51
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 43% -6.8%
≤30d 250 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 250 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 48% -8.8%
all 250 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 48% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 36% -17.5%
15% -27.1% 25% -25.5%
20% -34.2% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$104 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,565
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$565
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses144 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$475
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 252
History coverage24d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ 100¢ $600 $1,007 +$407 (+68%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ 94¢ $400 $558 +$158 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $302 +$88 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $501 +$52 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $606 +$121 +20%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $82 +$54 +66%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $404 −$149 -37%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$155 -77%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$38 +19%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$17 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$60 +59%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$17 +8%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $496 +$62 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,203 +$97 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $601 +$51 +8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$148 +73%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $205 +$54 +26%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$48 -47%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$91 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $403 +$11 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $102 −$75 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$19 -19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$59 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $406 +$402 +99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$85 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$109 +36%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $20 +$26 +128%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$53 +103%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$18 +9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $303 10m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $101 27m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 33¢ $102 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $302 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $202 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $553 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $101 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 79¢ $201 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 90¢ $501 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 84¢ $727 17h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $606 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 75¢ $110 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $101 19h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $247 20h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 81¢ $201 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $136 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 60¢ $82 25h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $101 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $101 27h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 16¢ $103 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 51¢ $10 39h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $21 39h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $102 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 68¢ $202 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 15¢ $47 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 78¢ $255 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,564.56 · official $1,561.61 (match) · 607 history records