Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b1d…8f47 politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,115 (-2%) realized −$1,115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%8W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,087
politics 39% −$27
sports 6% +$39
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$2
culture 3% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -8.1% -16.9% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 74 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 8% -11.5%
all 74 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 8% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 8% -11.5%
10% -18.8% 8% -19.9%
15% -26.7% 8% -27.7%
20% -33.9% 8% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$909) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses8 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage84d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $599 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $805 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $307 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $561 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $701 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 19 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $39 +$52 +134%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $871 −$1 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 30 $35 +$45 +129%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $659 −$1 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,948 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $823 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $963 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,024 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $864 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $598 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $599 5h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $261 25h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $261 27h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $800 4d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $801 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $688 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $689 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $612 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $613 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $756 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $756 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $852 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $853 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $794 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $796 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $880 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $881 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $804 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $805 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $774 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $776 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $881 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $883 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $882 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $640 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $641 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records