Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b24…4247 sports 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,640 (+10%) realized +$1,891 · open −$251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%108W / 108L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$440
14 days+$344
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,209
other 34% +$109
world 1% +$35
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 51% +1.1%
≤30d 94 -0.5% -9.9% 47% 47% -6.6%
≤90d 216 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% -0.7%
all 216 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 50% -0.7%
10% -18.5% 50% -10.2%
15% -26.4% 47% -18.9%
20% -33.6% 40% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$56 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$1,891
Unrealized−$251
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses108 / 108
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions6
Markets (closed)216 / 222
History coverage60d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 60¢ $150 $199 +$49 (+32%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 18¢ $75 $45 −$30 (-40%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 26¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-51%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 6¢ $200 $21 −$179 (-89%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 2¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $107 −$105 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $304 +$205 +67%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$63 +62%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $76 +$38 +50%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$68 +134%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $31 +$89 +291%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $147 −$145 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $153 +$222 +146%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $76 −$75 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $48 +$59 +123%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $166 +$159 +96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $232 +$225 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 −$32 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$43 -84%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $36 −$20 -57%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $112 −$110 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$71 +139%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$44 +43%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $152 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$91 +90%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $26 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 6h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 6h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 47¢ $51 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $104 6h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $56 19h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 43¢ $56 19h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 19h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 21h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $164 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 30h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $76 30h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 30h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $101 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 45h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 47h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.11 · official $354.11 (match) · 378 history records