trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 85¢ | 83¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success | Jun 12 | $3 | +$2 | +82% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | May 09 | $2 | −$1 | -43% |
| Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? | Apr 14 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? | Dec 24 | $25 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Solana reach $270 in October? | Nov 11 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Week 2 UNC QB: Gio Lopez or Max Johnson | Oct 20 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 19 | $25 | −$3 | -12% |
| Mumbai Indians vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad | Sep 19 | $2 | +$1 | +72% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Apr 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Pelicans | Mar 12 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Feb 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | Jan 13 | $115 | −$14 | -12% |
| 76ers vs. Hornets | Jan 13 | $3 | +$2 | +54% |
| Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? | Dec 03 | $2 | +$2 | +75% |
| Will another person be England's next manager? | Nov 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | Nov 20 | $2 | +$1 | +37% |
| Bills vs. Jets | Nov 20 | $2 | +$2 | +85% |
| US Open: De Minaur vs. Draper | Oct 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election? | Sep 04 | $1 | $0 | +43% |
| Iran military response by Friday? | Sep 04 | $2 | +$2 | +82% |
| Ethereum above $2,500 on August 16? | Sep 04 | $3 | +$2 | +67% |
| Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? | Aug 12 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Indian Election: Modi reelected? | Jul 02 | $95 | −$1 | -2% |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Jun 07 | $100 | −$1 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +81.8% | +64.5% | 100% | 100% | +64.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +81.8% | +64.5% | 100% | 100% | +64.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +14.0% | +3.1% | 67% | 33% | +0.4% |
| all | 24 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 62% | 38% | -12.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.3% | 38% | -12.7% |
| 10% | -13.5% | 38% | -21.1% |
| 15% | -21.8% | 38% | -28.7% |
| 20% | -29.5% | 29% | -35.7% |