Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b26…0c0e crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-15%) realized −$38 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%33W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$2
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$32
crypto 43% −$9
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +7.9% -2.3% 82% 56% -8.7%
≤30d 50 -12.9% -21.2% 66% 46% -28.6%
≤90d 50 -12.9% -21.2% 66% 46% -28.6%
all 50 -12.9% -21.2% 66% 46% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 46% -28.6%
10% -28.8% 32% -35.4%
15% -35.6% 26% -41.7%
20% -42.0% 20% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses33 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.51 · official $16.51 (match) · 100 history records