Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b2d…411c
crypto · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$629 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$193
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$137
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 29¢ 26¢ $219 $193 −$26 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $606 −$606 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$146 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $127 −$119 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$155 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $208 +$279 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$23 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $181 −$177 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$78 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$101 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$228 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$79 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$186 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$275 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$168 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $67 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $56 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $34 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $49 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $302 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $114 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $49 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $93 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 42% -10.4%
≤30d 24 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 24 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 42% -10.4%
all 24 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 42% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -19.0%
15% -22.7% 42% -26.8%
20% -30.3% 42% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.62 · official $275.71 · 73 history records