Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b2f…b549 politics 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$7
politics 38% −$9
sports 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$966) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage87d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 12 $966 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $921 −$3 -0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Fi May 11 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $974 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 02 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $185 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 28 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,115 11m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $58 23m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $11 28m
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 48m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $765 2h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $281 2h
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 2h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 39d
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $35 39d
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $17 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 39d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 39d
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $18 39d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 39d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 39d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 42d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $945 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 42d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $936 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $965 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $11 42d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records