trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -41.6% | -47.2% | 30% | 20% | -25.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -41.6% | -47.2% | 30% | 20% | -25.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -41.6% | -47.2% | 30% | 20% | -25.7% |
| all | 18 | -28.6% | -35.4% | 39% | 22% | -26.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.4% | 22% | -26.6% |
| 10% | -41.6% | 22% | -33.6% |
| 15% | -47.3% | 22% | -40.1% |
| 20% | -52.4% | 17% | -45.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 31¢ | 8¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-75%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $1 | +$2 | +238% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $3 | +$1 | +42% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $1 | +$2 | +105% |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | Nov 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 09 | $11 | $0 | -4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 09 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | Oct 25 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Japanese Snap Election Called by December 31, 2025? | Oct 25 | $1 | −$1 | -81% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 25 | $5 | −$4 | -84% |
| Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? | Oct 17 | $3 | +$2 | +55% |