Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4b34…f7e2 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$4
crypto 11% +$1
politics 5% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage535d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 01 $51 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $4,676 −$5 -0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Feb 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trae Young win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Jan 28 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 30d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $51 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $7 149d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $44 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $6 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 183d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $48 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 273d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $40 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 302d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $37 302d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $34 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $22 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 392d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.14 · official $67.14 (match) · 114 history records