Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b3a…c81c sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$317 (-15%) realized −$318 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%132W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$394
14 days−$640
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$608
other 9% −$44
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -21.3% -28.8% 49% 39% -27.1%
≤30d 282 -24.8% -32.0% 47% 37% -35.4%
≤90d 282 -24.8% -32.0% 47% 37% -35.4%
all 282 -24.8% -32.0% 47% 37% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 37% -35.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 29% -41.6%
15% -44.4% 22% -47.2%
20% -49.9% 16% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses132 / 150
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions21
Markets (closed)282 / 303
History coverage18d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Over $5 $12 +$6 (+130%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 38¢ 76¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+101%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? No 54¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+85%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? No 58¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Eduardo Ribeiro 65¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 63¢ 94¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 83¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Under 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 57¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? No 91¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 +$26 +504%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: CD Cobresal (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Savannah Broadus Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 54m
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 1h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 65¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $5 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 83¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 63¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $4 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 38¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $5 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 40¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 46h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.13 · official $124.13 (match) · 593 history records