Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b3c…2688
world · 410 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$586 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$554 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$139
Realized−$554
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses117 / 281
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)398 / 410
History coverage68d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 12 History 398 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$49
14 days−$122
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 77¢ 50¢ $62 $40 −$22 (-35%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 65¢ 44¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 44¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $13 −$6 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $11 −$5 -47%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $25 −$4 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $47 −$3 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $24 −$8 -34%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 09 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$5 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +95%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 09 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 -11%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 08 $2 $0 -15%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $10 −$9 -91%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$6 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -33%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$3 -48%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $24 −$6 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $27 +$14 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $5 $0 -5%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +129%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% −$216
other 31% −$79
politics 8% −$83
sports 8% −$89
crypto 4% −$12
finance 2% −$23
weather 2% −$67
culture 1% −$10
tech 1% +$5
economics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $5 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $4 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $3 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $10 31h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $10 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 31h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 38h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL No 99¢ $22 39h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 87¢ $16 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 45h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? SELL No 70¢ $21 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 78¢ $4 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 46h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 46h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 46h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 46h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -16.5% -24.5% 26% 22% -17.1%
≤30d 257 -14.8% -22.9% 27% 23% -19.1%
≤90d 398 -13.9% -22.1% 29% 23% -17.3%
all 398 -13.9% -22.1% 29% 23% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 23% -17.3%
10% -29.6% 17% -25.2%
15% -36.4% 12% -32.4%
20% -42.6% 10% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.00 · official $139.00 (match) · 1340 history records