Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4B 0x4b3c…7cd3 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$5,604 · open −$5,588
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day188.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$319
other 43% −$5,570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+82.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +70.7% +54.4% 62% 8% -11.9%
≤30d 41 +101.4% +82.3% 63% 12% -12.1%
≤90d 41 +101.4% +82.3% 63% 12% -12.1%
all 41 +101.4% +82.3% 63% 12% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +82.3% 12% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here +64.8% 12% -20.5%
15% +48.9% 10% -28.2%
20% +34.3% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +124% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
46.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$76 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$20,473
Realized+$5,604
Unrealized−$5,588
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$300
Trades / day188.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 80¢ $9,384 $14,921 +$5,537 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $9,384 $3,847 −$5,537 (-59%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 95¢ 100¢ $442 $463 +$21 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? No 64¢ 75¢ $243 $283 +$41 (+17%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 72¢ $113 $232 +$120 (+106%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 86¢ 84¢ $172 $169 −$3 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $127 $136 +$9 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $58 $94 +$36 (+62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $81 $50 −$31 (-38%)
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $90 $38 −$52 (-58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Yes 68¢ 25¢ $75 $28 −$48 (-63%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $343 −$103 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $152 −$106 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $291 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $499 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $582 −$82 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $838 +$73 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $577 +$37 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,149 −$253 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $199 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $177 +$199 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $121 −$12 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $42 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $291 −$36 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $472 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $431 +$22 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $774 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 21 $167 −$51 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $231 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 21 $179 −$75 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $139 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 21 $337 +$28 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $803 −$230 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $377 +$129 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $240 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $903 −$186 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $286 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$29 +4858%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $35 +$224 +633%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $8 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 78¢ $8 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 77¢ $4 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $8 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 77¢ $8 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $8 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $8 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 74¢ $7 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 69¢ $7 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $10 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $10 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 23m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 65¢ $6 23m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 23m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $10 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,472.57 · official $20,472.41 (match) · 3500 history records