Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b3c…64c0
other · 89 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$14
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage463d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $120 −$11 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $104 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $104 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $318 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $191 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $175 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $129 −$6 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $89 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $6 −$1 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $102 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $151 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $554 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $340 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $7 $0 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $4 $0 -9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $4 $0 -8%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $18 $0 -1%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $1 $0 -9%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 30 $7 −$1 -7%
Starmer out before July? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 29 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Fartcoin dip to $0.85 before June? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$11
other 25% $0
sports 13% $0
politics 11% −$2
economics 10% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $90 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $90 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $82 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $83 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $82 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $41 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $41 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $73 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $85 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $104 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $104 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $44 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $61 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $104 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $94 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $94 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $104 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $104 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $103 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $104 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 35% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 33 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 88 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.44 · official $13.60 (match) · 326 history records