Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b3d…ede7 crypto 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$315 (-22%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%64W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$260
14 days−$260
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 38% -45.9%
≤30d 55 -21.2% -28.7% 40% 40% -44.9%
≤90d 147 -13.3% -21.5% 44% 43% -31.2%
all 147 -13.3% -21.5% 44% 43% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 43% -31.2%
10% -29.0% 43% -37.7%
15% -35.9% 42% -43.8%
20% -42.2% 42% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses64 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage35d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$16 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$29 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$17 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records