Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b3d…8ed3 crypto 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,614 (+1%) realized +$1,646 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate87%266W / 41L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$114
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$1,121
sports 20% +$11
other 6% +$273
world 2% +$49
tech 1% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 16% -7.3%
≤30d 26 -6.8% -15.6% 85% 15% -7.8%
≤90d 28 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 18% -7.9%
all 307 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 14% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 14% -8.2%
10% -21.0% 6% -17.0%
15% -28.6% 3% -25.0%
20% -35.6% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$84 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$967
Realized+$1,646
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses266 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)307 / 309
History coverage494d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 99¢ 96¢ $899 $869 −$30 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $242 +$4 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $55 +$2 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $300 +$3 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $400 +$7 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -82%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $390 +$14 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 +$5 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 +$11 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $44 +$6 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$28 -95%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $2,298 +$25 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $83 +$16 +19%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025? Feb 20 $99 +$11 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Dec 08 $94 −$15 -16%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 05 $15 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $164 −$161 -98%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 03 $1,380 +$20 +2%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Dec 01 $3,198 +$117 +4%
Hawks vs. 76ers Dec 01 $1,348 +$28 +2%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Dec 01 $550 +$58 +10%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Dec 01 $1,000 +$30 +3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $2,861 +$139 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6AM ET Aug 01 $127 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10PM ET Jul 31 $124 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9PM ET Jul 31 $1,093 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7PM ET Jul 31 $1,098 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6PM ET Jul 30 $482 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5PM ET Jul 30 $1,000 +$37 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4PM ET Jul 30 $956 +$46 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5AM ET Jul 30 $613 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4AM ET Jul 30 $583 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3AM ET Jul 30 $889 +$100 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11PM ET Jul 30 $291 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 4m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3 5m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $297 6m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $300 7m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 7m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $39 8m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 8m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $59 8m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 88¢ $43 25m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 88¢ $45 25m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $91 30m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 94¢ $91 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 94¢ $67 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $150 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $50 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $30 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $20 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $4 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 89¢ $31 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 89¢ $13 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 89¢ $0 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 89¢ $45 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 99¢ $100 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 18h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 93¢ $100 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $966.98 · official $966.98 (match) · 1710 history records